Should you summer-fill in 2026? Three scenarios, three answers.
Historically July is the cheapest month. With the 2026 spike, that maths has changed. We model the break-even.
The summer-fill ritual is older than the off-grid market itself: top up your tank in July when prices are at their annual low, sit comfortably through autumn. In a normal year it saves £80–£150 on a 1,500L delivery.
2026 is not a normal year.
The three scenarios
Scenario A — Prices stay elevated (probability ~40%)
Gulf disruption persists into Q3. Jet fuel keeps a structural premium. Summer-fill loses its discount because the seasonal low is the new normal. Best move: fill now in May, not July.
Scenario B — Mean reversion by July (probability ~45%)
Routes normalise, jet fuel eases, summer dip arrives but compressed: instead of 25p below winter, maybe 10–15p below current. Best move: half-fill now, half-fill in late July. You catch the dip if it comes, you’re covered if it doesn’t.
Scenario C — Sharp easing (probability ~15%)
A diplomatic resolution + builder Saudi output. Prices drop to 70p by August. Best move: wait, fill mid-August. But this is the lowest-probability path.
Our recommended hedge
Most off-grid households should run a 40/60 split in 2026: 40% of annual need now (lock current price as insurance), 60% in late July (catch summer dip if it materialises). This gives you the best expected-value outcome across the three scenarios above.
Customers on our HomePoints scheme get 2× loyalty multiplier on summer-fill orders — worth a few pence per litre on top.